Firstly, a huge thank you to Caleb and Dan for taking this poll idea and making it happen. I know they are very keen on understanding the BJJ / Grappling community better and these polls always help.
Secondly, it’s very important to understand how to handle statistics or we would be trying to “use a ruler to measure the circumference of an orange”. We can’t really prove anything with statistics, but we can state with strong probability that something is likely or unlikely which in a lot of cases is more than enough.
Looking at the above numbers, we can state with strong probability that:
1. The hypothesis “People are likely to start smoking after they start at BJJ / Grappling” is most likely untrue
2. The hypothesis “People are likely to stop smoking after they start at BJJ / Grappling” is most likely true
3. The hypothesis “Smokers are likely to smoke less after they start at BJJ / Grappling” is most likely true
This is huge, I’m sure you agree. Not only for those who DO smoke, but for a very vulnerable demographic – young people. If the third statement isn’t a reason for people to sign their teenage boys and girls up to Brazilian Jiu Jitsu classes, I don’t know what is.
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